One of the mysteries of developments in Iran is the failure of minority rebellions to ignite. The mullah regime in Teheran oppresses all modernists, of course, but it also has earned the enmity of the sizable regional minorities, such as the Sunni Arabs in the South (where, by the way, the oil resides), the Azerbaijanis in the north and the Kurds in the west. Yet, if there have been outbreaks of palpable resentment, they are being kept secret.

The US and Israel obviously would appreciate seeing some anti-government agitation in Iran from almost any quarter, but their ability to promote them apparently is limited. Not so, necessarily, the Saudis.

The Asia Times carries an article by Brian M. Downing suggesting that the Saudis do not especially fancy a US or Israel attack on Iran's nuke facilities because they think such would be unsuccessful in the long run and unify the Iranian people behind the regime. Instead they hope to hurt the regime by pushing oil prices down, on the notion that lower prices can be endured better in Riyadh than in Teheran and by currency manipulation to contribute to the Iranians' fiscal woes. They also would like to stir up Iran's minorities, most of whom are Sunni.

Trouble is, the ability of the Saudis to control oil prices is not as great as some imagine, and currency exchanges are even more problematic. However, if the Saudis were committed to getting Iranian Sunnis to cause trouble, they probably could succeed.

Of course, then the Iranians would find ways to repay the compliment--among Shiites in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

One way or another, things are abubble in the Middle East in new ways. Turkey's growing antipathy to Iran client-state Syria, Russian President Putin's visit to Israel and the fall of oil prices--regardless of whether the worldwide recession or some country's policies is causing it--all are heating the pot. The fact that the US media and public are distracted by domestic politics is incidental at this point.