Our northern neighbor held a transformative national election Monday while the United States remained transfixed by the death of Osama bin Laden. Canadians went to the polls in slightly higher numbers (61%) than in recent elections and voted--a plurality--for a center-right government with "a strong, stable national majority," in the words of Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Leader of the victorious Conservatives, and now holding a majority after five years heading a minority government, Harper won about 167 of the 308 seats in Parliament. The opposition parties plainly made a mistake five weeks ago by voting "no confidence" in Harper's government and bringing on an election.
Like Ronald Reagan, the very square Albertan, Harper, has succeeded in part because his opponents consistently underestimate him.
The formerly third ranking party, the New Democrats (NDP), perhaps did not conclude that the election was a mistake, however. The left wing NDP was persuasively more anti-Tory than the Liberals and therefore appealed more to young voters and progressive Quebec voters ready to "go national" again. Polar political magnetism therefore brought the NDP to a giddy second ranking with (about) 102 seats. The ebullient leader Jack Layton is now the new official leader of the opposition. Encumbered with a cane from recent surgery, and a recent cancer survivor, Layton seemed to treat campaigning as physical therapy and wound up at rallies waving his cane like a sword. Compared to the "Grits"--the Liberals--the NDP seemed authentic. For the first time in a long time, Canadian politics is organizing along the traditional left-right axis familiar elsewhere in the West.
Here's what else the election did:
* The formally sovereignist Bloc Quebecois, having only narrowly failed in its effort to disassemble Canada in the 90s, dropped to four seats. For the first time in a generation the Bloc hardly matters at all in Parliament. Bloc leader Giles Duceppe lost his own riding (seat) and is gone. For now at least, Quebec separatism is dead. Some 59 of the NDP's 108 seats are freshmen from Quebec, most of them seats gained from the Bloc.
* The long dominant Liberal Party was nearly, but not completely, ruined, too, winning only 34 seats. If Layton was the Hubert Humphrey, or happy warrior, of the campaign, former professor Michael Ignatieff was the Liberal Party version of Adlai Stevenson: cerebral, a bit aloof in spite of himself, and ill at ease as a political scrambler. He asked for this election and this election more or less ruined his future. At least we will have in tomorrow's Michael Ignatieff one political scientist with practical political experience.
* The Greens' national leader, Elizabeth May, won a seat from BC's Gulf Islands--the Sunshine Coast, representing a new advance for her party, a first seat in Parliament--and another indication of how hard it will be for the left to coalesce against the Conservatives in coming years.
The left in Canada's new Parliament generally will agree to dislike the Tories, and agree on little else. A grand amalgamation is reasonable, but unlikely.
However, the danger of a left-leaning coalition was a successful rallying cry for the right in this election. In forging their victory, Conservatives won a few seats in Atlantic Canada, lost a few in Quebec, held on to big majorities in the West, but mainly gained their majority--about 16 new seats-- in vote-rich Ontario. The Tories had breakthroughs in urban areas and among minorities. More than any opponents, they are a national party. The NDP is nearly lost in Ontario, the Liberals are almost vacant in Quebec and the West. And, of course, the Bloc is history.
In his victory speech Harper--even though he was wearing a tie for a campaign change--seemed unplugged, effortlessly easygoing, human and considerate of his opponents, statesmanlike and eloquent. Stephen Harper is a study in squareness become charisma. It's a great feat for a pol, and he accomplished it.
Canada's election is nearly unnoticed in the U.S. But I might mention to my compatriots that Canada is our crucial friend, partner and ally, and we also might learn something from them. They have not strained their budget as much as we have in Washington, DC. Their dollar is worth more now than ours. They are developing their energy resources without the ambivalence of Americans. Their banks never bought into America's debilitating political correctness.
Without anyone noticing very much, including Canadians, they are beginning to boast that they are the best country on Earth. The gall! What is getting into these people?
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