New oil contracts, construction of new pipelines to replace an antiquated national system and attendant economic stimulus to local businesses are raising revenues and hopes. The Iraqi Central Bank--whose creation the United States helped facilitate even while the nation was engulfed in terrorism in 2004--now predicts a doubling of per capita income in the next four years thanks to new oil production and rising oil prices.
The coalition war in Iraq was not fought for oil, contrary to the line of the Left at the time (they seem to be rather quiet now on Libya). it was little noted by the media, but the U.S. did not use its power after the war to secure contracts for developing Iraq's vast oil resource. Ironically, China has won more contracts than America. For all contracts, the Iraqi government is imposing high fees and taxes. Iraq is going to enjoy a gusher of revenue.
Iraqi oil reserves already have proven to be vast, second only to Saudi Arabia by some estimates. Indeed, Saudi Arabia may have seen its peak production days, while Iraq--stunted economically by Saddam Hussein's dictatorship--has its best oil days still ahead.
It was announced today by Exxon and Shell, for example, that oil production already is rising faster than predicted in the Qurna field where they are active. If Iraq has not yet surpassed its pre-war production levels, it soon will.
"Under an agreement between Iraq and the companies (Exxon and Shell)," says the AP story, "production from the West Qurna I field should reach 2.825 million barrels a day after 6 to 7 years." That would be almost a third more production from one field than the whole country produced per year under Saddam Hussein. By that time, national production in total could surpass 6 to 7 (or more) million barrels a day, rivaling or exceeding the output of Saudi Arabia.
Most Americans and Europeans got so used to trouble in Iraq that they may be underestimating the ancient country's future. Among Arab lands, the former Mesopotamia potentially can become especially prosperous. It has oil, it has sunshine, it has water, and it has a relatively well-educated and industrious population.
There may continue to be sectarian violence in Iraq, fostered chiefly by Iran. But Al Qaeda has been defeated and probably has moved on to more inviting grounds, like Libya. If Iraq can stay on a stable democratic path and crack down on the constant Middle Eastern temptation to corruption, its path ahead is bright.
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