The most probable outcome in Britain's election Thursday is a narrow Tory lead. With what is being called (as in the U.S.) the "progressive" vote split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives stand to prevail, but not with much of a mandate.
The vultures already are circling Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Some of his own supporters are speculating on the party leadership battle that will follow a widely anticipated Labour's defeat. It could well be that Labour will come in third in popular votes while still winning more seats than the ill-prepared and underfunded Liberal Democrats.
But, even with most major newspapers supporting David Cameron's Conservatives, and the usual Labour papers backing the Liberal Democrats or not openly endorsing anyone, the problem for Conservatives is that on many issues they are simply pale imitations of the other parties: worried about climate change, though not quite as eager to redirect the economy; committed to the European Union, though without much enthusiasm; contemptuous of social conservatism, though not willing to enact a more materialist agenda. In other words, if they win, it won't be for their program (the ridiculous-sounding "Big Society"), but because of the sins of Labour and the inadequacies of the Lib Dems. They will lack an enthusiastic base.
Once in office, any Government will have to take a very big knife to spending programs, and that is going to end whatever honeymoon the new leadership enjoys. For the Tories it may destroy their political position for years to come. Indeed, if the Conservatives accept a deal with ten Northern Irish Unionist members to gain a coalition majority in Parliament, it will be with a promise to exempt their province from funding cuts. That might gain a majority in Parliament, but it would be hugely unpopular elsewhere.
The Tories today do not even offer tax relief beyond a suspension of plans to raise payroll taxes. One has the grim sense they actually may raise taxes and hamper economy recovery.
Leave a comment