British voters go to the polls next Thursday with more potential for a true three way split among the leading contenders than has been witnessed in decades. Moreover, the three way split could change the very nature of British politics if it means that in order to form a Government the "winner" has to compromise with one of the "losers" on fundamental rules of political governance. That prospect is the hidden issue of the current campaign.
Simply put, if David Cameron's Conservatives come in first in the number of seats won, but lack a majority, the only way they can govern in a stable fashion is in coalition with, presumably, the Liberal Democrats. (Barring the unforeseen, no one will want much to be associated with discredited Labour, whose leader probably will resign about eight days from now.) But the price the Lib Dems, led by Nick Clegg, may try to extract from the Conservatives is a "reform" (treacherous word) to institute proportional voting in future elections.
But other than surrendering still more sovereignty to the European Union, nothing would so weaken the British Parliament as proportional voting. The centrifugal forces of factionalism and regionalism would grow, spelling the end of purposeful government. The winner-take-all rule is rough on minority parties, but it does make strong governing possible.
Here is one of the most recent polls.
Surveys from the just concluded final debate of Labour's Gordon Brown, the Conservative David Cameron and the Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg have Tories moving into a stronger lead, with the Lib Dems not far behind in the popularity count and Labour sagging. The Conservative Party is institutionally the strongest and for this election has more money than its competitors. Arguably, the party is stronger than its leader. In contrast, the Liberal Democrat's Leader, Nick Clegg, is more popular than his party, whose organization is weak. This means that the Conservatives may do better in winning seats than their leader's popularity indicates, while the Liberal Democrats will be disappointed to see their number of seats come well under their pre-election polls. Labour, meanwhile, is in bad shape.
Events have the power to amaze--especially to amaze an observer a half world away--but it is hard to see Labour forming a majority or even coming in first in the election.
The Tories need a majority, and if not, a new election relatively soon.
And, as has been said here before, the U.S. needs a steady partner in charge in Britain.
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