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Polls Support Harper, but Will that Last?

Harper-Dion-coalition.jpg

Most Canadians, except in Quebec, seem to support Prime Minister Stephen Harper's decision to force Parliament into a cooling-off period just as the Conservatives' opponents were exhibiting a rare unified determination to vote for a new PM, Liberal Stephane Dion.

That probably also reflects the public's greater trust in the Conservatives on the economic issue. Indeed, polls show stronger support for the Tories on that issue than on the issue of prorogation (sending the House of Commons into forced recess).

Now there could well be a debilitating fight for the top leadership post among the Liberals, and their leader--and the Coalition's putative head--Dion doesn't even seem certain to prevail in it. Not only will he not become the new PM, he may not last as Liberal Leader. Dion was seen as the only horse to ride in a crisis, but now that the crisis is on hold for the next two months (when Parliament returns), the dolorous former professor's intra-party rivals seem likely to surface. It's hard to see how internecine Liberal jousting can help the Coalition, in any event.

Meanwhile, the relative popularity of Harper, as I wrote below, could easily start to evaporate if the PM does not respond strongly with an economic program the country can accept.

Harper lately has had the sense to offer to work on the program with the opposition while they are cooling their heels and sending out their Christmas cards. But he made a mistake by not adopting a more irenic approach earlier. Where did he get the idea that it was safe for a minority Government to propose taking away the public financing of the opposition parties? (Under his proposal his Conservatives would have lost the public cash, too, but they are better situated to get private funding.) If Harper & Co. had wanted to find a way to unite the usually fractious Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois, he could hardly have found a better device. They were plotting against him anyhow, but the attempt to raid their political piggy bank gave made them genuinely passionate.

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