Prices for commercial real estate have been running counter to the downward trend in home prices--but not any more. Hit hard is Manhattan, but other cities are sure to follow. One almost can hear the construction of new commercial buildings, not to mention condos, grinding to a halt.
'Twas ever thus. You can visit almost any big city and see in its architectural record the story of previous booms and busts. How beautiful were the sparkling Art Deco structures of the Roaring Twenties, and then it all stopped. (With notable exceptions like Rockefeller Center in New York. There young Nelson R. prevailed on his father to follow through, and the investment did pan out.) Films of the 1930s overall show a New York of nostalgia rather than progress.
In Seattle, there is almost a line in the northward march of the city's business district, from where the Progressive Era petered out, about Second and Marion. And then nothing new of substance was constructed for another twenty five years! Thereafter, one discovers in confident new buildings the Seattle booms of the late 50s, the late 60s and especially the 90s. Now what? The Washington Mutual Building, astride the new Seattle Art Museum, could turn into a wounded dinosaur or it could be someone's lovely new bargain headquarters.
One hopes a commercial real estate bust is not what we are facing, but if it is, we'll manage. Somehow, I don't think it will last long.
