Canada's Thanksgiving Day is today. Tomorrow is the federal election for Parliament. Therefore, except for last-minute polling that interrupts people's family turkey dinners, the final polls are from yesterday. And they diverge considerably. And there still is uncertainty shown in the electorate, with a 46 percent "undecided" column in one poll. Granted, the "undecided" term may represent people who in the end are not going to vote anyway. Nonetheless, the lesson for Americans in our own election should be, don't count on the polls.
All three top polls show the Conservative Party of Prime Minister Stephen Harper winning re-election, but only to another minority government. The differences come in the prospective margins.
The Strategic Counsel poll conducted for the Toronto Globe and Mail and CTV has the Conservatives ahead of their closest rivals, the Liberals, by only 33 percent to 28 percent (five point spread), with the New Democrats (NDP) coming in at 18 percent, the Greens at 11 and the Bloc Quebecois at 10 (that is all in Quebec, of course, where the Bloc vote stands at a nearly commanding 42 percent).
The Harris/Decima poll shows the Conservatives ahead by nine points (35 percent to the Liberals' 26 percent--NDP at 18. That is a nine point spread.
The Ekos Research poll falls between the others, with the Conservatives ahead 34 to 27 over the Liberals (six points).
Somebody's wrong, which is to say, the samples are different.
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