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Signs of Improved Safety in Iraq

I will celebrate the day I learn that it is safe for foreigners (e.g.,
Americans) to walk the shopping streets of Baghdad. That was not possible
when I visited in September, 2004 and it is not possible now, even though a
highly guarded Sen. John McCain conspicuously bought a carpet at a Baghdad
bazaar a couple of months ago. But the good senator was heavily guarded.

At my hotel three years ago, almost marooned, I had meetings with a few
Iraqis who could come to see me in safety. I had a particularly memorable
dinner with Ali Fadhil, one of the original founders of the now-famous,
award-winning (and still authoritative) blog, Iraq the
Model
. His brothers have made the blog the kind of thing
that is quoted by the mainstream media because of its authenticity and
immediacy.

Ali, a doctor, writes that he is coming to America this fall to do
post-graduate work in psychology at SUNY in New York. I plan to reciprocate
his visit in Baghdad.

Meanwhile, Ali's brothers continue to produce their excellent insights
into all things Iraqi. Below I have reprinted the story of how the road
through the once-deadly Anbar province is now passable and safe, at least
for Iraqis. This is a huge step forward and you can tell from Omar Fadhil's
report how delighted he is.

I look forward to the day when people like me are able to shop on Haifa
Street and not have to worry about being kidnapped for ransom, or killed!
When it is that safe, I want to go back. Dinner in the garden of Iraqi
friends has been promised. At the end of a day of desert heat, a cool
evening and a home-made Middle Eastern meal will be a joy.

But only when it can be enjoyed in peace. May that day come soon.


Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Crossing Anbar

We've been getting some reports about the improvement in security in Anbar
in the last few months but little was said about the highway that runs
across the province.

The several hundred kilometer western section of the international highway
is technically Iraq's second "port" in a way as it connects Iraq with Syria
and Jordan and was for years the only window to the world when all airports
and the southern ports in Basra were closed to traffic in the 1990s.

For most of the time between 2004 and 2007 taking this road was considered
suicidal behavior as the chance someone would be robbed or killed was too
high.

But with the tribal awakening in Anbar that cleared large parts of the
province from al-Qaeda the highway is expected to be safer, but how much
safer?

My family returned yesterday from a vacation in Syria and they have used
this road twice in six weeks. I had tried hard to convince them not to do
that and take a flight instead but now after hearing their story I'm
convinced that my fear was not justified; the road is safeÅ 

This is good not only for Iraq's economy and traveling but also for the
American troops who can use this road as an alternative supply route in case
the British troops withdraw and leave the strategic southern highway between
Kuwait and Baghdad unguarded.

Back to the story; there are two travel plans for passenger SUV's and buses
from Damascus to Baghdad; one includes leaving Damascus between 10 pm and
midnight, reaching the Syrian border control before dawn, entering the Iraqi
border control at 8 am and arriving in Baghdad around sunset. A total of
approximately 20 hours with 6 to 7 hours lost in waiting and passport
control.

The second plan includes leaving Damascus at noon and here convoys carrying
the passengers continue to move all the way until a short distance northwest
of Ramadi. At this point the time would be between midnight and 2 am and
since that's within curfew hours in Baghdad, the drivers park their vehicles
and everyone gets to sleep 3 or 4 hours and wait for the sun to rise and
then the journey would continue.

Now the first plan sounds predictable, safe and well planned given the
distance and necessary stops. But look at the second one carefully and try
to picture the scene; dozens of passenger SUV's (GMC trucks mostly) and
buses parking in he middle of nowhere in a zone that was until recently the
heart of al-Qaeda's Islamic state! Obviously the drivers and families feel
safe enough that they know they won't be robbed and slaughtered by
cold-blooded terrorists. Even more interesting, this parking and resting
zone was not designated nor protected by the Iraqi or American forces but
simply an arrangement the drivers managed on their own perhaps with
cooperation from the local tribes.

I still laugh every time I think of this incredible change and I honestly
wouldn't have believed it if the story teller wasn't my father.

This sign of positive progress brings to my mind a sad irony. Back in 2004
when taking the Anbar highway was out of question for me, the Sunni dentist,
I made the trip back and fourth between Baghdad and Basra countless times
without any fear. Now, I'm ready to try the trip through the west, but going south through the
militia infested land is something I'd never dare do at this stage.

Aside from security my father told me one more thing that shook the common
idea about the numbers of Iraqi refugees fleeing to Syria. Apparently the
direction of movement is influenced by the season to a certain degree.

When my family's turn to pass through the passports control on the Iraqi
side came, the vehicles that were still behind them on the Syrian side
outnumbered the ones coming from the Iraqi side.
And that's not the only indication to the seasonal aspect of Iraqis'
migration.

Six weeks ago when my family hired a driver to take them to Damascus the
fare was $110 for each passenger since finding a car to take you out of
Baghdad was difficult while the return trip from Damascus would cost only
$25 per passenger because drivers were ready to accept any amount of money
rather than to return to Baghdad empty handed. Guess what, the opposite is now true!

It's supply and demand 101, this change in cost reflects a change in demand
on the two ends of the route suggesting that a good percentage of Iraqis who
flooded Syria in the beginning of the summer season were just trying to
escape the summer heat and enjoy a simple vacation, like my family did.
It doesn't mean a refugees issue doesn't exist, but it does mean that Iraqis
could sometimes be just normal tourists...

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