Eventually someone gets around to deflating the scare stories about assorted dangers facing mankind. Usually it also is not widely picked up. When the danger of "global cooling" ended in the 80s, it hardly made a difference, because we were already preparing for the opposite scare, global warming.
Now we have it from Time magazine (July 9, 2007, "Increasing Oil Reserves") that the great oil shortage facing the Earth is not really so bad after all:
"An annual British Petroleum report claims that the world has enough oil reserves to last 40 more years. The study, based on officially submitted figures, shows 15 percent more proven oil reserves globally than a decade ago. In fact, only North America has less known oil now than it had 20 years ago. Governments often rely on the BP reports, but many scientists question whether the world really has that long to go before its fuel gauge hits empty."
Of course, some of us who follow this story a bit realize that "known" oil reserves are only those that are ready for exploration. If they have not yet been identified, obviously, they can't be estimated. As a result, we always have only a certain number of years of known oil reserves, but like the horizon, the danger of oil supply exhaustion is constantly receding as one approaches it.
I had the great pleasure of knowing the late economist Julian Simon who was a wise and yet trenchant critic of environmental alarmism. I wish he were still alive; we need him. Great attention and awards were lavished on his rival, Paul Ehrlich, who predicted world starvation and the depletion of key resources by 1980. Simon placed a bet on that with Ehrlich and, of course, was completely vindicated. But that didn't stop the media from lionizing Ehrlich and ignoring Simon. Big foundation money followed the same path.
If Simon were alive, he would have a hard time getting a fair hearing in the mainstream media even now. They have already decided who is right and wrong on these matters and that the side with which they disagree (along with Mainstream Science) shall not even be heard.
But facts, as is said, are stubborn things. The truth has a way of leaking out.
